Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-15
The Diagnosis
SUPERSTITIONS won at Innisfail on one of its slower days — 29% of its own runs, and 81% of the track
SUPERSTITIONS won race 4 at Innisfail, faster than 89% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
SUPERSTITIONS won race 4 at Innisfail on Good 4 over 1200m, averaging 17.01 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 29% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 89% of the field it beat |
| faster than 81% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 52% of Masayuki Abe's rides |
| faster than 81% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 1 of 9 in the market at $2.3 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-15Partial trainer withheld — the evidence didn't support it
Continue the investigation
Open Superstitions in GALLOP — the full evidence behind this diagnosis, the way the engine sees it.
Open Superstitions in GALLOP →