Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-13
The Diagnosis
TEN CARAT LUCY won at Rockhampton on one of its slower days — 9% of its own runs, and 16% of the track
TEN CARAT LUCY won race 5 at Rockhampton, faster than 88% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
TEN CARAT LUCY won race 5 at Rockhampton on Good 4 over 1300m, averaging 16.74 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 9% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 88% of the field it beat |
| faster than 64% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 31% of Ryan Wiggins's rides |
| faster than 38% of Kevin Miller's runners |
| faster than 16% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 3 of 8 in the market at $6.0 |
| 3 of 3 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-13
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