Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-28
The Diagnosis
TAVOLO won at Moruya from 5 of 11 in the market, and 64% of the track
TAVOLO won race 7 at Moruya, faster than 91% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
TAVOLO won race 7 at Moruya on Soft 5 over 1435m, averaging 16.76 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 91% of the field it beat |
| faster than 97% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 62% of Damon Budler's rides |
| faster than 51% of Rob Potter's runners |
| faster than 64% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 5 of 11 in the market at $10.0 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-28Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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