Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-22
The Diagnosis
TAKE A DAY OFF won at Newcastle from 7 of 10 in the market, and 22% of the track
TAKE A DAY OFF won race 5 at Newcastle, faster than 90% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
TAKE A DAY OFF won race 5 at Newcastle on Good 4 over 1600m, averaging 16.09 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 90% of the field it beat |
| faster than 30% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 23% of Lee Magorrian's rides |
| faster than 39% of Paul & Martha Cave's runners |
| faster than 22% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 7 of 10 in the market at $16.0 |
| 0 of 1 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-22Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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