Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-10
The Diagnosis
SUCCESSISMAGIC won at Kilcoy from 6 of 10 in the market
SUCCESSISMAGIC won race 4 at Kilcoy, faster than 90% of the field it beat and 16% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
SUCCESSISMAGIC won race 4 at Kilcoy on Soft 5 over 1500m, averaging 16.01 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 90% of the field it beat |
| faster than 32% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 34% of Ms Georgina Cartwright's rides |
| faster than 12% of Brooke Mackie's runners |
| faster than 16% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 6 of 10 in the market at $31.0 |
| 0 of 1 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-10Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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