Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-11
The Diagnosis
SCRUFFY won at Dalby on one of its slower days — 11% of its own runs
SCRUFFY won race 3 at Dalby and 16% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
SCRUFFY won race 3 at Dalby on Good 4 over 1400m, averaging 16.43 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 11% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 41% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 39% of Brandon Lerena's rides |
| faster than 52% of William Kropp's runners |
| faster than 16% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 1 of 5 in the market at $2.15 |
| 1 of 1 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-11Partial field withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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