Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-10
The Diagnosis
ROCKABYE ROXY's win at Nowra was faster than 51% of everything run at the trip
ROCKABYE ROXY won race 2 at Nowra, faster than 90% of the field it beat and 29% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
ROCKABYE ROXY won race 2 at Nowra on Soft 7 over 1400m, averaging 16.25 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 90% of the field it beat |
| faster than 51% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 32% of Ms Alysha Collett's rides |
| faster than 32% of Keith Dryden & Libby Snowden's runners |
| faster than 29% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 1 of 10 in the market at $1.3 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-10Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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