Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-02
The Diagnosis
RED SAMOVAR's win at Sunshine Coast was faster than 40% of everything run at the trip
RED SAMOVAR won race 3 at Sunshine Coast, faster than 92% of the field it beat and 25% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
RED SAMOVAR won race 3 at Sunshine Coast on Soft 7 over 1400m, averaging 16.16 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 92% of the field it beat |
| faster than 40% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 37% of Ben Thompson's rides |
| faster than 22% of David Vandyke's runners |
| faster than 25% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 2 of 13 in the market at $3.0 |
| 1 of 1 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-02Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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