Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-01
The Diagnosis
NEARCO FROD's win at Flemington was faster than 42% of everything run at the trip
NEARCO FROD won race 1 at Flemington and 7% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
NEARCO FROD won race 1 at Flemington on Good 4 over 2520m, averaging 15.67 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 56% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 42% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 5% of Blake Shinn's rides |
| faster than 7% of Tony & Calvin McEvoy's runners |
| faster than 7% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 1 of 7 in the market at $2.5 |
| 4 of 4 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-01Partial field withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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