Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-13
The Diagnosis
NASRAAWY won at Moe on one of its slower days — 10% of its own runs, and 65% of the track
NASRAAWY won race 8 at Moe, faster than 92% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
NASRAAWY won race 8 at Moe on Heavy 10 over 1000m, averaging 15.99 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 10% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 92% of the field it beat |
| faster than 24% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 35% of Ms Bree Temple's rides |
| faster than 23% of Gavin Bedggood's runners |
| faster than 65% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 2 of 12 in the market at $4.4 |
| 2 of 2 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-13
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