Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-29
The Diagnosis
MONGOLIAN SPRING's win at Grafton was faster than 97% of everything run at the trip, and 76% of the track
MONGOLIAN SPRING won race 3 at Grafton, faster than 90% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
MONGOLIAN SPRING won race 3 at Grafton on Soft 5 over 1181m, averaging 17.11 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 90% of the field it beat |
| faster than 97% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 92% of Ms Bailie Baker's rides |
| faster than 72% of Adam Campton's runners |
| faster than 76% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 1 of 10 in the market at $2.6 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-29Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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Open Mongolian Spring in GALLOP — the full evidence behind this diagnosis, the way the engine sees it.
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