Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-30
The Diagnosis
MIN KIATA clocked Casterton faster than 88% of everything it has run, and 95% of the track
MIN KIATA won race 5 at Casterton, faster than 88% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
MIN KIATA won race 5 at Casterton on Soft 6 over 1200m, averaging 16.66 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 88% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 88% of the field it beat |
| faster than 75% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 91% of Ms Kate Walters's rides |
| faster than 97% of Wayne Walters's runners |
| faster than 95% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 3 of 8 in the market at $4.4 |
| 1 of 2 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-30
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