Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-08
The Diagnosis
MERCHANT MOON won at Nanango from 6 of 11 in the market
MERCHANT MOON won race 5 at Nanango, faster than 91% of the field it beat and 41% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
MERCHANT MOON won race 5 at Nanango on Good 3 over 1200m, averaging 16.68 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 91% of the field it beat |
| faster than 42% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 56% of Ms Jess Emmerson's rides |
| faster than 67% of Geoffrey Schrader's runners |
| faster than 41% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 6 of 11 in the market at $6.0 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-08Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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