Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-07-31
The Diagnosis
MAMMA MIA's win at Port Macquarie was faster than 66% of everything run at the trip
MAMMA MIA won race 2 at Port Macquarie, faster than 90% of the field it beat and 33% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
MAMMA MIA won race 2 at Port Macquarie on Soft 6 over 1812m, averaging 16.0 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 90% of the field it beat |
| faster than 66% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 20% of Ms Olivia Chambers's rides |
| faster than 22% of Kristen Buchanan's runners |
| faster than 33% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 4 of 10 in the market at $7.0 |
| 0 of 1 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-07-31Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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