Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-17
The Diagnosis
MAGIC MERLIN's win at Scone was faster than 89% of everything run at the trip, and 25% of the track
MAGIC MERLIN won race 3 at Scone, faster than 89% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
MAGIC MERLIN won race 3 at Scone on Soft 5 over 1700m, averaging 16.21 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 89% of the field it beat |
| faster than 89% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 23% of Mitchell Bell's rides |
| faster than 16% of Brett & Georgie Cavanough's runners |
| faster than 25% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 2 of 9 in the market at $3.2 |
| 1 of 1 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-17Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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