Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-11
The Diagnosis
LUCKY COMPASS won at Ballarat Synthetic on one of its slower days — 19% of its own runs
LUCKY COMPASS won race 10 at Ballarat Synthetic, faster than 92% of the field it beat and 29% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
LUCKY COMPASS won race 10 at Ballarat Synthetic on Synthetic over 1400m, averaging 16.07 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 19% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 92% of the field it beat |
| faster than 25% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 32% of Ryan Houston's rides |
| faster than 49% of Kelvin Bourke's runners |
| faster than 29% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 4 of 12 in the market at $12.0 |
| 2 of 2 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-11
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