Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-29
The Diagnosis
HOME RULE's win at Caulfield was faster than 93% of everything run at the trip, and 60% of the track
HOME RULE won race 4 at Caulfield, faster than 94% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
HOME RULE won race 4 at Caulfield on Soft 7 over 1400m, averaging 16.65 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 49% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 94% of the field it beat |
| faster than 93% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 71% of Ms Dakotah Keane's rides |
| faster than 73% of Maddie Raymond & Patrick Bell's runners |
| faster than 60% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 4 of 16 in the market at $10.0 |
| 2 of 5 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-29
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