Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-29
The Diagnosis
GANDALF won at Warra from 5 of 8 in the market, and 98% of the track
GANDALF won race 2 at Warra, faster than 88% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
GANDALF won race 2 at Warra on Firm 2 over 1100m, averaging 17.12 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 88% of the field it beat |
| faster than 89% of Paul Hamblin's rides |
| faster than 98% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 5 of 8 in the market at $8.0 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-29Partial horse, trip, trainer withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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