Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-07-27
The Diagnosis
FIRERATED's win at Ballarat Synthetic was faster than 53% of everything run at the trip
FIRERATED won race 8 at Ballarat Synthetic, faster than 92% of the field it beat and 69% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
FIRERATED won race 8 at Ballarat Synthetic on Synthetic over 1200m, averaging 16.46 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 92% of the field it beat |
| faster than 53% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 68% of Bailey Kinninmont (a2/53.5kg)'s rides |
| faster than 57% of Alex Rae's runners |
| faster than 69% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 2 of 12 in the market at $4.4 |
| 1 of 2 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-07-27Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
Continue the investigation
Open Firerated in GALLOP — the full evidence behind this diagnosis, the way the engine sees it.
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