Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-16
The Diagnosis
DAWN ON ME won at Moruya from 4 of 8 in the market, and 46% of the track
DAWN ON ME won race 3 at Moruya, faster than 88% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
DAWN ON ME won race 3 at Moruya on Soft 7 over 1010m, averaging 16.55 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 88% of the field it beat |
| faster than 28% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 55% of Ms Jordan Quince's rides |
| faster than 57% of Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones's runners |
| faster than 46% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 4 of 8 in the market at $6.0 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-16Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
Continue the investigation
Open Dawn On Me in GALLOP — the full evidence behind this diagnosis, the way the engine sees it.
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