Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-11
The Diagnosis
COCCINELLA won at Ballina on one of its slower days — 0% of its own runs
COCCINELLA won race 4 at Ballina, faster than 88% of the field it beat and 13% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
COCCINELLA won race 4 at Ballina on Heavy 10 over 1900m, averaging 14.99 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 0% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 88% of the field it beat |
| faster than 2% of Nick Heywood's rides |
| faster than 1% of Allan Chau's runners |
| faster than 13% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 1 of 8 in the market at $2.3 |
| 1 of 1 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-11Partial trip withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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