Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-19
The Diagnosis
COAL RIVER's win at Hobart was faster than 38% of everything run at the trip, and 43% of the track
COAL RIVER won race 10 at Hobart, faster than 89% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
COAL RIVER won race 10 at Hobart on Soft 5 over 1600m, averaging 15.87 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 89% of the field it beat |
| faster than 38% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 22% of Thomas Spillane's rides |
| faster than 45% of Angela Brakey's runners |
| faster than 43% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 2 of 9 in the market at $5.5 |
| 2 of 2 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-19Partial horse withheld — the evidence didn't support it
Continue the investigation
Open Coal River in GALLOP — the full evidence behind this diagnosis, the way the engine sees it.
Open Coal River in GALLOP →