Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-01
The Diagnosis
AYE AYE CAPTAIN's win at Rosehill Gardens was faster than 81% of everything run at the trip
AYE AYE CAPTAIN won race 6 at Rosehill Gardens and 81% of everything clocked at the track. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
AYE AYE CAPTAIN won race 6 at Rosehill Gardens on Soft 5 over 1400m, averaging 16.68 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 81% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 59% of Kerrin McEvoy's rides |
| faster than 62% of Les Bridge's runners |
| faster than 81% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 2 of 7 in the market at $3.3 |
| 2 of 2 experts were on it |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-01Partial horse, field withheld — the evidence didn't support it
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