Racing · The DiagnosisPublished · 2026-08-22
The Diagnosis
AEROFOIL won at Port Macquarie on one of its slower days — 10% of its own runs, and 39% of the track
AEROFOIL won race 5 at Port Macquarie, faster than 90% of the field it beat. What the run was actually worth.
THE BACK PAGE · the run over the result · ACTUAL SPORTS MEDIA
AEROFOIL won race 5 at Port Macquarie on Heavy 8 over 1210m, averaging 16.1 m/s. That is the result. The run is what follows — the same performance measured against every population that gives it meaning.
| The run, measured against |
|---|
| faster than 10% of its own clocked runs |
| faster than 90% of the field it beat |
| faster than 65% of everything clocked at this trip and going |
| faster than 32% of Ms Liberty Smyth's rides |
| faster than 36% of John Sprague's runners |
| faster than 39% of everything clocked at the track |
| started 1 of 10 in the market at $2.4 |
Read down that list and the win either grows or shrinks. That is the whole point: the race says where they finished, the clock says how fast they actually went, and only one of those two survives contact with the next start.
Evidence Actual Sport IntelligencePublished 2026-08-22
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